economy

Fed Decision in October?

No change94%Yes No
25 bps increase4%Yes No

New· FOMC

Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?

2%

Yes 0.02 No 0.98

New· Fed Emergency Rate Cut

How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

Below 4.70%68%Yes No
Below 4.65%56%Yes No

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How high will 30-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

5.40%87%Yes No
5.50%62%Yes No

New

Bank of Japan Decision in October?

No change96%Yes No
25 bps increase2%Yes No

New· Bank of Japan

Bank of England decision in November?

25 bps increase96%Yes No
No change3%Yes No

New· Bank of England decision

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

Below 4.9%79%Yes No
Below 4.8%56%Yes No

New

Bank of Canada Decision in October?

25 bps increase82%Yes No
No Change16%Yes No

New· Bank of Canada decision

Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)

Hike–Pause–Hike74%Yes No
Hike–Pause–Pause21%Yes No

New· Fed 3-Parlay

How high will US unemployment go in 2026?

7.0%6%Yes No
5.0%5%Yes No

New

ECB Interest Rates: October 2026

No change97%Yes No
25 bps increase1%Yes No

New· ECB Interest Rates

Which CEOs will be out before 2027?

Brian Armstrong - Coinbase7%Yes No
Sam Altman - OpenAI5%Yes No

New

Largest Company end of October 2026?

NVIDIA70%Yes No
Apple26%Yes No

New· Largest Company

Fed Decision in January?

No change68%Yes No
25 bps increase28%Yes No

New· FOMC

China Annual GDP Growth 2026

4.0–5.0%94%Yes No
5.0–6.0%2%Yes No

New

Another Fed rate hike in 2026?

77%

Yes 0.77 No 0.23

New· Fed Rate Hike

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

5.3%47%Yes No
5.4%22%Yes No

New· 10-year Treasur

How high will inflation get in 2026?

Above 4.5%14%Yes No
Above 5%9%Yes No

New

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

↑ 4.25%77%Yes No
↑ 4.5%6%Yes No

New

US recession by end of 2026?

8%

Yes 0.07 No 0.92

New· US recession by

Fed rate cut by...?

July 2027 Meeting50%Yes No
April 2027 Meeting30%Yes No

New

Fed Decision in December?

25 bps increase76%Yes No
No change20%Yes No

New· FOMC

Largest Company end of December 2026?

NVIDIA62%Yes No
Apple34%Yes No

New· Largest Company

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

11%

Yes 0.11 No 0.89

New· Hormuz Traffic Returns to Normal

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

0 (0 bps)93%Yes No
1 (25 bps)1%Yes No

New