Politics

US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?

October 24>99%Yes No
October 2895%Yes No

New· US-Iran ceasefire continues

Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by...?

November 3056%Yes No
October 3124%Yes No

New

Iran nuclear test before 2027?

4%

Yes 0.04 No 0.96

New· Iran Nuclear Test

UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?

9%

Yes 0.09 No 0.90

New

Total Internet Blackout in Iran by...?

December 3127%Yes No

New

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23 and oil below $80 before the midterms?

No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate65%Yes No
No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; R Senate34%Yes No

New

US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...?

October 314%Yes No

New

Saudi airspace closed by...?

December 3121%Yes No
October 313%Yes No

New

IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by...?

December 3111%Yes No
October 31<1%Yes No

New

US military draft authorized in 2026?

4%

Yes 0.04 No 0.97

New

Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal?

No Return to Normal Traffic in 202690%Yes No
December7%Yes No

New

Israeli airspace closed by...? (Excluding Holiday Closures)

December 3130%Yes No
October 316%Yes No

New

Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?

12%

Yes 0.12 No 0.88

New· Iran NPT Withdrawal

Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by...?

December 3121%Yes No
November 3011%Yes No

New

US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?

4%

Yes 0.04 No 0.96

New

Houthis enter Aden by...?

December 3123%Yes No
November 309%Yes No

New

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

27%

Yes 0.27 No 0.73

New· Pete Hegseth out

Will Iran hold a presidential election by...?

December 314%Yes No

New

Masoud Pezeshkian out by...?

December 319%Yes No

New

Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?

2%

Yes 0.02 No 0.98

New

US charges Hormuz fees by...?

December 313%Yes No

New

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?

6%

Yes 0.06 No 0.93

New· Hormuz Traffic Returns to Normal

US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?

82%

Yes 0.81 No 0.19

New· US-Iran ceasefire continues

What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year)14%Yes No
≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year)14%Yes No

New

Iran Nuke before 2027?

4%

Yes 0.04 No 0.96

New· Iran Nuke

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement before the midterms?

No Hormuz Agreement93%Yes No
Hormuz Agreement; D Senate5%Yes No

New

Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?

Kazem Gharibabadi37%Yes No
Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani31%Yes No

New· Who attend US-Iran peace talks

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?

<1%

Yes <0.01 No >0.99

New· Hormuz Traffic Returns to Normal

How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?

468%Yes No
520%Yes No

New· How many different countries will Israel strike

Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?

December 312%Yes No

New· US declares war on Iran

Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?

2%

Yes 0.02 No 0.98

New

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

December 3116%Yes No
November 308%Yes No

New

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

11%

Yes 0.11 No 0.89

New· Hormuz Traffic Returns to Normal

Iran leadership change by...?

June 30, 202726%Yes No
December 3114%Yes No

New

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

December 313%Yes No

New

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

March 3160%Yes No
December 3135%Yes No

New

Iran leader end of 2026?

Mojtaba Khamenei79%Yes No
No Head of State5%Yes No

New