Alberta Independence Referendum: Margin of Victory

Remain 40–60%–Remain 60–80%–Remain 20–40%–Remain 80%+–

No trades yet · Ends Oct 20, 2026

Remain 40–60%
97%
Remain 60–80%
<1%
Remain 20–40%
<1%
Remain 80%+
<1%
Remain <20%
<1%
Leave wins
<1%

Rules

Alberta is scheduled to hold a provincial referendum on October 19, 2026. Question 10 asks: "Should Alberta remain a province in Canada, or should the Government of Alberta commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada?" For the purposes of this market, "Remain" refers to the option that Alberta should…

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